Avaliação Probabilística da Resiliência de Sistemas de Distribuição com Foco na Análise de Risco

Abstract

Power interruptions due to extreme weather conditions have unique characteristics, because they usually lead to the occurrence of multiple contingencies in the distribution network, requiring resilience analysis to quantify the ability of the power system to resist these extraordinary events. The use of risk metrics to measure unsupplied energy is an effective approach, yet it remains underutilized in the literature. Therefore, in this work, a model based on Monte Carlo simulation and risk analysis is proposed for resilience analysis of the IEEE 34-node system. The analysis allowed for the identification of critical load loss scenarios, considering variables such as wind speed and the condition of the poles.