Fluxo de Potência Trifásico Probabilístico utilizando o OpenDSS e a Transformação Unscented

Abstract

This work presents a Probabilistic Three-Phase Power Flow based on the Unscented Transform and the use of the OpenDSS software. The application of the Unscented Transform allows for a reduction in the number of samples of uncertain variables. OpenDSS, an open-source software, provides large flexibility in modeling unbalanced distribution networks. The results obtained for a 13-bus system are compared with those provided by Monte Carlo Simulation and the Two-Point Estimation Method, allowing for a significant reduction in computational effort while maintaining the accuracy of the estimated statistical variables. The preliminary results obtained show that the proposed methodology estimates the probabilistic variables of interest with an error less than 3.3×10−5 compared to Monte Carlo Simulation.