Geração de Cenários de Energia Natural Afluente para Planejamento de Médio Prazo via Técnica Inteligente

Authors

  • Renato Andrade Mosqueira Furtado Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Elétrica, Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, MG
  • André Luís Marques Marcato Departamento de Energia Elétrica, Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, MG
  • Ivo Chaves da Silva Junior Departamento de Energia Elétrica, Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, MG

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20906/CBA2024/4682

Keywords:

Arithmetic Optimization Algorithm, Natural Inflow Energy, Hydroelectric, Medium-term Energy Planning, Mixed Integer Nonlinear Programming

Abstract

This article aims to present the use of the Arithmetic Optimization Algorithm meta-heuristic to ensure the generation of natural inflow energy scenarios. In this context, the proposed optimization problem, whose objective function is to minimize the standard deviation of the prediction errors, will be solved by the intelligent search space of arithmetic optimization wich will select the best coefficients as well as the optimal order of each month in order to correlate historical data observed with the estimated values of natural inflow energy. After defining the optimal coefficients and order, we move on to generating inflow energy scenarios considering a horizon of sixty months ahead. Finally, simulations were carried out for the hydroelectric plants of Santo Antônio, Itumbiara and Teles Pires whose results show the applicability of the methodology for generating inflow energy scenarios which are feasible for medium-term energy planning.

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Published

2024-10-18

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Section

Articles