Análise de Ferramentas Baseadas em Simulação Monte Carlo para o Cálculo da Confiabilidade de Sistemas de Distribuição

Abstract

Currently, it is essential to develop ever more effective probabilistic methods for evaluating the performance of distribution systems. Power grids have become increasingly complex, with the presence of new technologies, such as distributed generation (DG), which must be represented by the assessment tools. This paper aims to compare the performance of new simulation tools for evaluating reliability indices, based on Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), named quasi-sequential and state transition approaches. Both techniques have the ability to capture chronological variations of the system and, therefore, allow the representation of DG units. The performance of the methods is compared to the traditional sequential tool, where aspects relating to flexibility, computational efficiency and accuracy of results are discussed.