A Control Approach to the Covid-19 Disease Using a SEIHRD Dynamical Model

  • Fernando Pazos National University of Avellaneda
  • Flavia E. Felicioni Universidad Nacional de San Marín
Keywords: Covid-19 disease, SEIR model, Nonlinear systems, Proportional control


The recent worldwide epidemic of Covid-19 disease, for which there is no vaccine or medications to prevent or cure it, led to the adoption of public health measures by governments and populations in most of the aected countries to avoid the contagion and its spread. These measures are known as nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and their implementation clearly produces social unrest as well as aects the economy. Frequently, NPIs are implemented with an intensity quantied in an ad hoc manner. Control theory oers a worthwhile tool for determining the optimal intensity of the NPIs in order to avoid the collapse of the healthcare system while keeping them as low as possible, yielding in a policymakers concrete guidance. We propose here the use of a simple proportional controller that is robust to large parametric uncertainties in the model used.