Análise de Fatores que Impactam o Valor do Lance Vencedor nos Leilões de Transmissão de Energia Elétrica

Ana Carolina Araújo de Oliveira; Francisco Alexandre Andrade de Souza; Ricardo Silva Thé Pontes

doi:10.20906/SBAI-SBSE-2023/3788

Ana Carolina Araújo de Oliveira Departamento de Engenharia Elétrica, Universidade Federal do Ceará, CE
Francisco Alexandre Andrade de Souza Dept. Analytical Chemistry & Chemometrics, Nijmegen
Ricardo Silva Thé Pontes Departamento de Engenharia Elétrica, Universidade Federal do Ceará, CE

DOI: https://doi.org/10.20906/SBAI-SBSE-2023/3788

Keywords: RAP (Permitted Annual Revenue), Energy Transmission Auction, Auction Theory, Multiple Linear Regression, Discount

Abstract

Auctions have been used as a concession method for the transmission of power lines, aiming to stimulate competitiveness and ensure lower costs for the sector. This study aims to carry out an exploratory analysis of the variables that may be related to the Allowed Annual Revenue (RAP) value proposed by bidders in the auctions and to estimate the value of this revenue. Data from auctions held between 2003 and 2021 were collected, and multiple linear regression was used as the analytical method. The results showed that the variables present in the bidding documents and the number of bidders can explain approximately 45.5% of the variability in the bid value. Additionally, it was identified that the number of competitors per lot, the number of projects per lot, the length of transmission lines, and the project execution deadline are the most influential variables in this context.