Uso do Método de Monte Carlo para a Criação de Curvas de Cargas Residenciais Regionais

Carlos Gabriel M. dos Santos; Frederico Donato B. Cardoso Junior; Laiana de Pinho Cavalcante; Luiz Eduardo Sales e Silva

doi:10.20906/SBAI-SBSE-2023/4044

Carlos Gabriel M. dos Santos Centro de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento de Tecnologia Eletrônica e da Informação, AM
Frederico Donato B. Cardoso Junior Centro de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento de Tecnologia Eletrônica e da Informação, AM
Laiana de Pinho Cavalcante Centro de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento de Tecnologia Eletrônica e da Informação, AM
Luiz Eduardo Sales e Silva Centro de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento de Tecnologia Eletrônica e da Informação, AM

DOI: https://doi.org/10.20906/SBAI-SBSE-2023/4044

Keywords: Household Load profile, Socioeconomic Classes, Generation of Curves for Simulation, Monte Carlo Method

Abstract

The current lack of residential load curves impacts university and research center research on low-voltage electrical networks. This affects studies into the planning, control, operation and connection of distributed energy elements, compromising the accuracy of the results. This research article proposes the use of the Monte Carlo method to create realistic residential load curves for different regions of Brazil, based on data from the National Electricity Conservation Program (PROCEL) and its Survey of Ownership and Usage Habits of Electrical Equipment (PPH). Using cumulative distribution functions (CDF), equipment, capacity, nominal power, times of day and frequency of use are selected. A sequential probabilistic strategy creates the individual load curves that make up the household load curve. The solution is tested with data from the state of Amazonas, generating 500 equipment curves and general household curves by socioeconomic class. The results show good performance compared to PROCEL’s reference curves.