Estimativa de Riscos em Redes Elétricas Considerando Fontes Renováveis e Contingências de Geração e Transmissão via Fluxo de Potência Probabilístico

Tomás R. Belo Pereira; André Milhorance; Armando M. Leite da Silva

doi:10.20906/SBAI-SBSE-2023/4072

Tomás R. Belo Pereira Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro, PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro
André Milhorance Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro, PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro
Armando M. Leite da Silva Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro, PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro

DOI: https://doi.org/10.20906/SBAI-SBSE-2023/4072

Keywords: Cross-entropy, intermittent energy resources, Monte Carlo simulation, probabilistic load flow, risk estimate, variance reduction techniques

Abstract

With the increasing penetration of renewable sources, the performance evaluation of electrical systems has become critical, given the intermittency of these energy resources combined with the failures of network equipment. This work presents the use of probabilistic power flow, based on Monte Carlo simula-tion and the cross-entropy method, to estimate the risk of inadequacy of electrical quantities, such as trans-mission equipment overloads and bus under voltages. The purpose is to determine, in a precise and compu-tationally efficient way, the probability of the system not meeting operational criteria, considering load, generation and transmission uncertainties. The method is applied to the IEEE RTS 79 test system and its modified version, with the inclusion of a wind farm, and the results are widely discussed.