Projeção da difusão de sistemas fotovoltaicos em consumidores comerciais de baixa tensão considerando cenário com venda de excedente da geração

  • Hilquias S. E. Chiquete Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria
  • Laura L.C. Santos Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria
  • Mauricio Sperandio
  • Gustavo M. Lazari Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria
  • Rafael C. Ney CEEE-D Equatorial Energia, Porto Alegre
Keywords: Projection, Diffusion, Systems Dynamics, Bass model, Photovoltaic Systems


The incentive of renewable sources has provided a high growth to photovoltaic energy (PV) in the electric matrix, today it is essential that planning practices are prepared to operate, monitor and propose scenarios ideas of insertion or withdrawal of policies in benefits to all agents of this chain of operation. Thus, a model is presented for projection of the diffusion of photovoltaic systems (PVS) for commercial consumers of Group B served by the voltage level below 2.3 kV. The proposed model uses the System Dynamics (SD) technique, based on Roger's theory of diffusion of innovations, together with bass's model. The model evaluates the propensity of adoption over time considering three aspects: regulatory, economic, technical and the imitation and innovation coefficients arising from the Bass model and is rotated using the Vensim software from Ventana system. Four scenarios are tested to project the diffusion of PVS to validate the proposed methodology, the results show how incentive policies can interfere in the adoption of PV technology.