Impacto da alteração da curva de carga na expansão do sistema elétrico brasileiro

Abstract

New challenges are arising not only because of the decentralization of the national electric system, but also due to the intermittence of alternative energy sources. These challenges require advanced forms of control and monitoring of the demand curve. In this context demand side management (DSM) is one of the main areas for future investments in Brazil. In view of this, this article emerges as a study of the impact of DSM on the expansion of the National Interconnected System (NIS) in 2040. This article simulates three scenarios in CARTHER, an academic software which optimizes the costs of expansion planning for long term. The first scenario does not have any alteration in the typical demand curve, in other words this scenario will be considered the baseline one. The second scenario assumes the modification of the load profile of residential consumers due to the popularization of time of use tariffs in 2040. Lastly, the third scenario assesses possible changes in the typical load curve of each subsystem, considering the implementation of more generic DSM measurements, for example time of use tariff, in the residential, industrial and commercial sectors in 2040.Not only differences could be observed in the increment of the total cost of these investments, but also subtle changes were perceived in the composition of the electrical matrix for the three scenarios evaluated. This article contributes concluding that the load profile directly influences the expansion of the NIS, being possible to shape it so that it has an electrical matrix more reliable and with more renewable energy resources.