Otimização Robusta Aplicada ao Planejamento da Operação de Longo-Prazo de Sistemas Hidrotérmicos

Abstract

One of the main challenges in long-term operation planning of hydrothermal systems is the uncertainties treatment related to inflows in hydroelectric plants and their reservoirs. This work proposes a methodology based on Linear Adjustable Robust Optimization to allow the tractability of infinite uncertainty scenarios in operation planning problem. To assess the applicability of method, case studies are simulated using a real system based on Brazilian electrical system. The results indicate the feasibility of applying the proposed methodology and shows a comparison of total operating costs, generation evolution and storage trajectories in reservoirs with other deterministic and stochastic programming approaches, where the proposed model presented better performance in definition of policy operation that implies lower costs in face of all possible scenarios of water inflows that may occur later.